Tiny Nick’s game pick: 11/26

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Locks

NCAA Football (1 unit) TCU @ Iowa State -15 (-110): 3:30 p.m. CT on FS1

One last chance to bet my Cyclones at home, and I like their chances of beating a TCU team that was lousy on the home stretch.

The Horned Frogs enter senior Jack Trice and seem to enter a circular saw. It’s their running defense that becomes the key clash here, as TCU allows the 11th most rushing yards per game in the country. Advantage Breece Hall and the Iowa State offense in this one, and I see him go wild in his last home game. Things have been lousy for the TCU on the road as well this season as well, with their last 3 away games that ended in a minus-28.7 scoring margin and a 0-3 against the difference.

Let’s not forget that Iowa State is the only team to beat CFP Oklahoma State’s darling this season. They may not be living up to their pre-season hype, but that probably lowers that number to some extent. I think it turns into a runaway, so I’m doting with the clones.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 unit) Duke / Gonzaga Over 154.5 (-110): 9:30 p.m. CT on ESPN

I really can’t watch this game and see anything other than a shootout. These teams are in the top three or four collections of attacking talent in the country, and it should show tonight.

Which should come as no surprise, Gonzaga opened the season offensively with a tear. The Bulldogs are currently 2nd in offensive efficiency, 3rd in effective field goal rate and 4th in overall offensive rating. Considering that they accomplished this while knocking out top Texas and UCLA teams makes it even more impressive. The Blue Devils are not left out themselves, holders of the 8th best offensive rating.

Both of these teams have stars that the other team just doesn’t have the ability to defend. It shouldn’t be too quick, but both teams should be extremely efficient on offense and carry the game over the total.

NBA (1 unit) Portland Trail Blazers @ Golden State Warriors -6.5 (-110): 9:00 p.m. CT on NBCS-Bay Area

I just don’t understand why this Warriors run isn’t getting the appreciation it deserves. They should be a much bigger favorite against a Portland team that continues to show how horrible it is on the road.

After turning a 19-point deficit into a 20-point win on Wednesday, the Warriors extended their home winning streak to 9 games. All of those wins have been 13 points or more, with an average margin of 20.5 points. This led to Golden State having the 2nd best ATS record and the best over / under ATS in home games. Conversely, Portland holds the 2nd worst ATS road record and the worst over / under ATS in their 9 road games.

The Blazers have only stayed in that number twice away from home this season, and those were against less than impressive teams. The Warriors might just be the best team in the NBA, at least right now, as their statistical profile places them 1st in defense and 2nd in offense. This line therefore makes no sense, and I will be happy to provide an update.

NBA (0.5 units) Anthony Edwards Over 23.5 points (-110): 7:00 p.m. CT on Bally Sports North

Unfortunately, I’ve had a hard time getting any winning props on the map lately (mainly due to KAT making 3 faults in the first 3 minutes). But without Patrick Beverley in the lineup, Wolves will need their young perimeter star even more. As long as Ant can drop a 3 or two ball early on, we should be good at a number that Vegas stubbornly refused to increase.

Degenerate

No degenerate today.

Tiny Nick has 457-356 ATS (+82 units) on his locks since joining Zone Coverage.

Every day, he will offer his locks and his degenerate choices. Locks are the games he trusts. Degenerates are fun choices but riskier ones.